4 Temmuz 2012 Çarşamba

Syria - we're not even "leading from behind"

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Two bombs killed 55 and wounded over 300 in Damascus (SANA)

Despite America's ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice's protestations to the contrary, the Kofi Annan ceasefire plan for Syria has failed. It was doomed to fail from the start - Bashar al-Asad has no reason to step down. He has effectively used his military, intelligence and security forces to suppress the opposition, and is doing so with impunity because he has correctly assessed that foreign military intervention is highly unlikely.

The world is watching to see what happens next. Will there be a Libya-style operation to protect Syrian civilians from the military onslaught being waged in several cities? Will a coalition of Arab and Western nations begin to provide effective covert support to the opposition, providing the three things needed for a successful insurgency - money, weapons and training? Or will there be a series of increasingly harsh economic sanctions imposed on the country - I mean real sanctions, not the laughable European Union cutoff of luxury goods to the al-Asad family? (See my earlier article, EU luxury sanctions against Syria - is the best you can do?) I am not sanguine that anything is in works.

Why not? Simple. The Russians and the Chinese will not support real action against Syria, and the Obama Administration is too focused on its upcoming tight re-election campaign. It has adopted a very passive observer role, hoping that others will solve the problem, much like the role we have seen this Administration take in regards to the Iranian nuclear issue. Ignore it and hope it either goes away when Tehran announces its nuclear weapons capability, or condemn the Israelis when they attempt to destroy the program.

In the case of Syria, the Administration has put its stock in several "other people's solutions." There is the doomed-from-the-start Annan initiative that virtually no one who knows anything about Syria (and I do not include Kofi Annan in that group) thought would succeed. Under that plan, about a third of the 300 unarmed UN military observers are in Syria.

Since the beginning of the Annan "ceasefire," over 1000 Syrians have died, including 55 in a car bomb attack in a section of Damascus that is home to a major intelligence facility. The facility in the al-Qazzaz neighborhood, located at the intersection of the Airport Road and the Southern Bypass, is pretty heavily guarded - I could never get near it. Now we see Syrian crowds demonstrating against the UN observers.

Then there is the hope that at some point new-again Russian President Vladimir Putin will renounce his staunch support for Bashar al-Asad and support tough United Nations measures. It does not appear this is going to happen. Putin just announced that he will forgo the U.S.-hosted Group of Eight meetings - not exactly an indicator of impending cooperation with the leading nations of the world.

If the Administration is hoping that NATO or European nations are about to form a coalition and militarily intervene in Syria, they are going to be disappointed. France, who took the lead in forming a coalition for last year's military operations against Libya's armed forces, has undergone a major political change. A new president, a socialist, will take office in mid-May and has already announced plans to withdraw French troops two years early from its NATO commitment in Afghanistan. To think a President Hollande is going to commit French forces to Syria is a bit naive.

If the Administration is hoping that the Syrian opposition will somehow gel into an organization with the capability to stand up to the al-Asad regime backed by tanks, artillery and air power, I assess that without external assistance, it is only a matter of time before the government forces prevail. That's a polite way of saying that there will be a bloodbath - the Syrian regime is not known for restraint when it comes to its own survival in power.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta stated that the Pentagon has a series of contingency plans to intervene if ordered to do so by the President. The plans reportedly include establishment of safe areas as well as an air assault on Syrian military forces. That's all well and good, but the planning is useless to the Syrian opposition if the President does not give the orders.

The Gulf States, the Europeans and most importantly, the Syrian people are looking for some kind of American leadership. In Libya, we adopted the nonsensical "leading from behind" construct. It Syria, we are not leading at all.

Syria: Assif Shawkat dead?

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According to claims of the Free Syrian Army, eight senior officials of the Bashar al-Asad regime were killed in Damascus yesterday, including deputy minister of defense Major General Assif Shawkat. In addition to being the deputy minister and fellow 'Alawite, Shawkat sits on Bashar's Crisis Cell.

It goes further: Shawkat is also Bashar's brother in law - he is married to Hafiz al-Asad's only daughter Bushrah. See my October 2010 article, Syria - the rise of Asif Shawkat. In that article, I noted that Asif was to be promoted to lieutenant general (in Syrian Arabic, 'imad), but also note that in the current report, he is listed as a major general (liwa').

The Middle East Live blog of the UK's The Guardian newspaper today carried an article titled Syria: Damascus clashes prompt claims of high-level assassinations in which I was quoted:

The most interesting move here is the promotion of Asif Shawkat to lieutenant general and the news that he may be the next minister of defence. Shawkat owes virtually all of his good fortune to the fact that he is married to Bushra Hafiz al-Asad. If he becomes the minister of defense, al-Asad will have an absolutely loyal and trustworthy ally in that key position. While almost all of the senior officers in key positions are from the 'Alawite minority of the Latakia region, Shawkat is one better, he's family.

Shawkat, now 60-years-old, has been the chief of Syrian Military Intelligence since early 2005, shortly after the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri in Beirut. Most Middle East observers (including me) believe there was a Syrian hand in the murder. We also believe Shawkat was involved in the planning, if not the execution.

The regime has denied the opposition claims about this alleged operation. It is not unusual for the opposition to make such claims, nor is it unusual for the regime to deny such claims, even when true.

It remains to be seen if Shawkat was killed as claimed. He may surface later today or in the next few days for no other reason than to make a proof of life. However, if the opposition claims are true, this is a major success for the opposition. As I said in the 2010 article, this is not just an attack on a senior official, this hits the very heart of the al-Asad family.


"Lockerbie bomber dead" - more questions than answers

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Now that former Libyan intelligence officer 'Abd al-Basit al-Maqrahi, convicted for his involvement in the bombing of Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland in 1988, has died, more questions remain about the entire affair.

These are my thoughts on the issue. I have a unique perspective on this, having served as an intelligence officer for virtually my entire professional career. There are many holes in the official version of what happened with the downing of the airliner and the deaths of 270 people. Many of my readers are familiar with my skepticism about this case, and know that I am not prone to conspiracy theories.

I have excerpted relevant portions of an article I wrote when al-Maqrahi was released from a Scottish prison, ostensibly for health and humanitarian reasons - he was expected to die within 90 days of his release. That was in August 2009. Is Scottish medicine so bad that they could have so badly diagnosed his condition? Hardly - it was corruption on an international scale, a deal with Libya for a lucrative oil contract with the UK's BP oil. (See Thoughts on the release of the "Lockerbie bomber" for the article.)

EXCERPT
I have often expressed skepticism that al-Maqrahi was a major actor in the bombing attack that destroyed Pan Am 103, killing 270 people in December 1988. If that is the case, who do I think did it?

To answer that, I want to recall a few events that led up to the attack on Pan Am 103. In 1987, Iran and Iraq had been at war for seven years - casualties from the bloody conflict were approaching one million. Although there had been U.S. Central Intelligence Agency efforts to assist the Iraqi armed forces with intelligence information as early as 1984, these never proved to be effective, owing to mistrust on both sides. By late 1987, however, the Iraqis were beginning to falter under the relentless attacks by the numerically superior Iranians who mounted fanatical human wave assaults on Iraqi troops positions.

In early 1988, the Defense Intelligence Agency prepared an assessment that concluded Iran would likely emerge victorious if the conflict continued another year. Present Reagan declared that an Iranian victory was unacceptable to American interests - he directed the Department of Defense to take steps to ensure that victory did not happen. The result was a Defense Intelligence Agency effort to provide intelligence information to the Iraqi Directorate of Military Intelligence. I was one of two officers assigned to execute this effort.

The effort was successful. With American intelligence information, along with the Iraqi use of modified Scud (al-Husayn) missiles and chemical weapons, Iraq was able to force the Iranians to accept a cease-fire in August 1988.

Just a month earlier, there was a critical event in the Persian Gulf. On July 3, an Iran Air passenger jet on a flight from Bandar Abbas to Dubai was mistakenly identified as a fighter aircraft by the USS Vincennes and shot down, killing all 290 passengers and crew.


I have met with several Iranian officers since that incident - they all believe the shoot down was intentional and intended to send a message to Tehran that the United States would not permit Iran to prevail in the war with Iraq.

When Iran accepted the ceasefire in August, they declared that they were capable of defeating the Iraqis, but not both the Iraqis and the United States. The Iranians have never forgotten our assistance to the Iraqis and the shoot down of Iran Air 655. Those are two reasons we should not have been surprised when Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers and Iranian-made weapons showed up in Iraq following the U.S, invasion in 2003.

Having failed to defeat the Iraqis, the Iranians wanted revenge against the "Great Satan." How better to avenge the death of 290 passengers and crew on an Iranian airliner than to destroy an American passenger jet. What better target than an airline that has the word "American" in its name?

Here is where the story - let's call it my analysis - takes on truly "bazaar" and bizarre dimensions. There are countries and groups that wish us ill, many for our support of Israel. One such group is the Damascus-based Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC), headed by Ahmad Jibril. Jibril's group had long been supported by the IRGC.

Who better to turn to than a known terrorist group with experience in explosives and hijackings? At some point in the fall of 1988, IRGC officers met with members of the PFLP-GC, possibly with Jibril himself. The Iranians certainly have enough money and other means of support that would be of interest to Jibril. In return, Jibril agreed to bomb an American airliner. In other words, the Iranians contracted out the hit, hoping to hide the Iranian role in the operation.

The PFLP-GC is in its own perverse way a very talented organization. Their bomb-makers have exhibited expertise in constructing improvised devices that are hard to detect. To bring down a pressurized commercial airliner flying at high altitude does not require a large explosive device. The trick is getting the device onto the aircraft and ensuring that the detonation occurs after the aircraft has reached a suitable altitude for a small device to be effective. The PFLP-GC bomb makers in Syria constructed at least five suitable devices - four were found, and I believe the fifth was the bomb that brought down Pan Am 103.


The explosive device used was concealed in a Toshiba cassette tape player. The explosive material was Semtex, the preferred explosives of terrorist organizations world wide. Until recently, the principal chemical components of Semtex, RDN and PETN, were hard to detect. It was also sold in huge quantities to Libya and Syria, among others.

In order to get the bomb onto the aircraft, the PFLP-GC may have enlisted the help of 'Abd al-Basit al-Maqrahi and another Libyan intelligence officer accused but not convicted, al-Amin Khalifah Fahimah. The investigation revealed that the bomb, hidden in the Toshiba cassette player, was packed in a Samsonite suitcase. That suitcase was placed into the interline baggage system at Malta International Airport earlier that day aboard Air Malta KM180 which moved the bag to Frankfurt, where it was placed onto Pan Am 103A (a feeder flight), flown to London and later transferred onto the Boeing 747 that operated as Pan Am 103.

'Abd al-Basit al-Maqrahi's cover position was as chief of security for Libyan Arab Airways (LAA); his intelligence service colleague Fahimah's cover was as LAA station manager at the airport in Malta. Certainly they played a role in routing the bomb-laden suitcase onto Pan Am 103. What is not known is whether al-Maqrahi and Fahimah acted alone for the PFLP-GC - who would not be adverse to recruiting the Libyans - or whether Libyan leader Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi sanctioned their participation.

The fact that Qadhafi gave up the two intelligence officers is persuasive to me that this was a rogue operation. If Qadhafi authorized the Libyan intelligence service to conduct the operation with the PFLP-GC and then gave up two of its officers, he broke faith with his intelligence service.

We intelligence officers routinely broke the laws of other countries, knowing full well that our government would never break faith with us. For that reason, I tend to believe that the two were operating on their own, probably for a large amount of money, and got caught. Qadhafi gave them up and took the blame to make peace with the West.

Is al-Maqrahi guilty? Yes, of course. Is Fahimah also guilty? Most likely - their airline covers were crucial to getting the bomb on board the Pan Am jet. That said, it was probably not sanctioned by Qadhafi. The money Libya paid in compensation is minor compared to the benefits resulting from the subsequent suspension of sanctions and later restoration of diplomatic ties with the West, including the United States.

The bottom line: the unproven culprits who have never been brought to justice for the murder of 180 American and 90 others live free in Damascus and Tehran.
END EXCERPT

Since I wrote that article, the Libyan people have overthrown, and unfortunately killed, Mu'amar al-Qafhafi. During the Libyan revolution, Libyan intelligence chief Musa Kusa (photo) defected to the United Kingdom. Kusa served as the chief of Libya's external intelligence service, the mukhabarat al-Jamahiriyah, from 1994 to 2009, thus during the Pan Am 103 operation. As part of his debriefings, Scottish authorities questioned him about the attack.

Shortly afterward, the European Union dropped all sanctions and restrictions on Kusa, and he is reportedly living well in Qatar. I would like to know just what his answers were to those questions. I suspect that my version of what happened is closer to the truth than the official version. If that is the case, there is a concerted effort to end this affair with no further blame.

There is more. Former Libyan internal security chief 'Abdullah al-Sanusi and al-Qadhafi's son Sayf al-Islam are in custody. They will likely be tried in Libya, although the International Criminal Court has indicted both of them and want to try them in The Hague. They certainly have new information on the bombing of Pan Am 103.

Given the Obama Administration's penchant for publicizing successful intelligence operations and ignoring failures, I believe that if we had learned that the official version was correct - that this was solely a Libyan operation ordered by Mua'mar al-Qadhafi and we now have the word of the Libyan intelligence chief at the time - we would have heard about it. The fact that we have not tells me there is much more to this case than we are being told.

I remain skeptical.


Abby's Wish

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When times are great, friends are there to rejoice with you. When times are tough, friends are there to help you get through it. When you have great friends in your life, it makes hours, days, weeks, months and years become fulfilled with great memories.

I remember when Kayleigh came in to this world and all of you, friends, would rejoice in the miracle that Kayleigh survived what the doctors felt was impossible. I remember when Kayleigh was sick, friends put their hands together and prayed for another miracle. I remember when Kayleigh went to Heaven, friends reached their arms out for comfort. I also remember when friends helped lift a financial burden when this crazy world came crashing down on us.

One friend in particular who put his words on the line to help start a chain reaction to bring friends and family to send donations, is now in need of a financial assistance. However, Brent Riggs may have been the one to lend a helping hand to me as a friend, but it is Abby who is requesting this financial wish.

I have come to know the Riggs family very well and they are the most amazing family I have ever met. It is a blessing what Brent does everyday to witness to the world and what he has done to be such a strong leader for his family of 7 while caring for his little girl who was stricken with cancer. It is Abby who wishes to gain this financial blessing as they are all raising money for another adopted brother or sister. After seeing how amazing this family has been to me, to others and to their children, they are so deserving of this blessing.

So, I am going to give what little I have in order to start the same chain reaction blessing that the Riggs Family has done for others.

Brent...here is a $100! May you be blessed with what you need to bring home another beautiful child who will be even more blessed to be called a "Riggs"

Everyone who wants to help donate, please click here: Abby's Wish

God Bless My Friend!!!

Adam

Kayleigh's Birthday

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I am so excited because next weekend, my Mom and Dad will be venturing out to Wilmington to spend the weekend with me and all my great friends. It will be their first time coming out here and we have some exciting events planned.
A good handful of us are all gonna go out to eat at a beautiful restaurant downtown on the waterway to enjoy the beautiful sunset and then dive in to a delicous "Healthy" home made cake made with love by my mom to celebrate Kayleigh's birthday. It is going to be wonderful and I am so looking forward to having my friends and family there with me.
Other events for the weekend are not yet set in stone, but here are some of the options we may be doing: Airlie Gardens, Battleship North Carolina, Fort Fisher Aquarium, Exercising at O2 Fitness, Walking the Loop and the beach in Wrightsville Beach, and other exciting times. We only have the weekend, so we will have to pick the best of the best this time around.
It will be a great weekend to celebrate Kayleigh's birthday with those who are close to my heart. I couldn't ask for better friends who have supported me through everything and are there on a daily basis to put a smile on my face and remind me how truly blessed I am. Kayleigh has touched so many hearts and is the reason for so many blessings in my life. If it weren't for Kayleigh and the awesome people she brought in to my life, I wouldn't be as incredibly happy where I am in my life. She is such an amazing girl who continues to do wonderful things for so many on a daily basis.
Thanks to all and God Bless!
Adam

27 Haziran 2012 Çarşamba

Jordan and Chris test memory cards for their camera store customers

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This test involved freezing, baking, shooting with plastic bullets and immersing in a hot bath SD cards branded Sandisk Extreme Pro, Hoodman RAW Steel, and Panasonic UHS-1. Only the Panasonic survived.
     Jordon answered the inevitable youtube question: "So u gay or not?" with "You sound like our wives."
     At the end of the video, what Jordan's mom said was "I don't think I should come up there," prompting Chris to say "No, probably not, no." — which kind of answers the underwear question.
     The bake test was performed in the EasyBake oven of Chris' son.

Facebook privacy: company freaks out over 24-year-old Austrian law student's challenge; 15 FB lawyers on case in Ireland

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Schrem with Facebook's 1222-page dossier on him
List to Schrem interviewed on The Story, starting at the 31:15 mark of a MP3 file that you can download here.

Max Schrem is a 24-year-old Austrian law student and the leader of Europe vs. Facebook, an organization trying to compel Facebook to become more responsible about its users' privacy.
     He founded the organization when, after 22 emails, Facebook finally sent him its data on him — a pdf file which ran to 1,222 pages — including much information he thought he had deleted.
     Facebook adds the results of its own snooping to the data provided by its users. For example, it has a category called "Last Location" as part of its digital stalking of customers. Deleting friends on Facebook just moves them to a file called "deleted friends." (Schrem: "Pretty much what we discovered is that deleting on facebook means that you hide things from yourself, but that's pretty much it."
     Max counted 57 categories of data on himself, but says Facebook has at least 84 categories. He also got 300 pages of text messages, many of which he had deleted.
     Facebook's operations outside the US and Canada are in Ireland for tax reasons (2-3% vs. 35% in the US, according to Schrem) so his group went went there to inform facebook of all the ways it was violating European Data Protection law. Schrem said Irish Data Protection Commission lacks people "in good knowledge" of stringent European laws. Schrem's beef will be heard in the Irish courts; Facebook now has a legal team of 15 people in Ireland working on Schrem's case.
     Schrem compared Facebook's recent, well-concealed, one-week poll of users about privacy (with laughably contrived questions) to a Chinese Communist election in which voting is encouraged but the polling places are hidden:

Polling station well hidden. Instead of having a transparent vote about the demanded changes Facebook is now having a pro-forma vote on its platform. Because the vote would only be binding if 30% of the worldwide users take part the mechanism was very well hidden on the platform, making sure that most users don’t even know about it.
      Until the end only about 342.000 of the 901 million users have found the polling station, that’s just 0.038028%. Facebook is again fooling its users: First they give you that whole speech about user participation, and then they hide the polling station, just to be sure. To us this is more of a Chinese than an American understanding of democracy.