Syrian air force cluster munitions reliability issues

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RBK-250 Cluster bomb unit pieces and unexploded sub-munitions

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov's protestations to the contrary - "There is no confirmation to this..." - the Syrian air force is dropping Soviet/Russian-made cluster bombs on cities across Syria. The photographs are clear and detailed - these cluster bombs are the RBK-250.

The weapons are being used against civilian homes, which is not the best use of a cluster bomb. A cluster bomb is basically a canister filled with bomblets, sub-munitions that scatter over a wide area to kill large formations of troops and tanks.

Here is what a cluster bomb strike on a house looks like. Total misuse of the weapon.



Over the last few weeks, the Syrians have used an increasing amount of these munitions. Prior to that, we primarily saw the use of the FAB-250 250-kilogram general purpose bomb. Either the Syrians believe the cluster bombs will be more effective against the rebel-held urban areas, or they are running short of the general purpose bombs.

Additionally, there appear to be problems with the RBK-250 cluster munitions in the Syrian inventory. There are dozens of videos on YouTube the show issues with the units. Some of the canisters failed to open and disperse the sub-munitions, and others have opened, but many of the bomblets did not detonate.

Here in the video are examples of both issues. This is in Ma'ar Shurayn, about two miles northeast of the key chokepoint at Ma'arat al-Nu'aman, located at 35 40 05N 36 43 38E on the Homs-Aleppo highway.

The narrator says the first one (he called it a missile) was dropped from an aircraft and did not explode - members of the Free Syrian Army are removing it, fearing it will detonate and harm the civilian population. The second one also did not detonate - he said he believed it to be a cluster munition (it is) dropped from a MiG, and pointed out the sub-munitions.



It appears to me that the Syrians are really going after that area of Idlib governorate around Ma'arat al-Nu'man. The rebels took it earlier this week - it cuts the road from Damascus and Homs to Aleppo. The are bombing all these towns around that city - Jarjanaz, Ma'ar Shamshah, etc. It is critical to the regime to reopen the main resupply route from Damascus to Aleppo.

The numbers of unexploded cluster and general purpose bombs indicate a problem with either the maintenance of the weapons - are they expired or just not cared for? - or is there an issue with the fuses for the bombs? In any case, it is a serious issue for the Syrian air force. Nothing damages morale more among pilots than to have to fly into harm's way and deliver a weapon that does not function.

Of course, I hope they continue to have these issues.

Let's get past the sex and concentrate on Benghazi

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CNN - Piers Morgan Tonight - November 12, 2012

I appeared on CNN's Piers Morgan on November 12 to talk about the resignation of CIA Director David Petraeus. Since it was a panel discussion, I only had limited time to make a few comments. Here are those points, with a bit of expansion. (Watch the segment here.)

I have been invited back to be on the November 13 show to discuss this issue more fully.

Iraq and Afghanistan
General Petraeus did a great job in Iraq and Afghanistan. In Iraq, it was General Petraeus who convinced President Bush to commit additional combat forces for what is now called "the surge." That, combined with the Sunni Awakening, broke the back of al-Qa'idah in Iraq (AQI) and rendered them ineffective as a fighting force. The presence of additional American troops forced the Shi'a militias, particularly that of Iran's fair-haired child Muqtada al-Sadr, to back down.

Unfortunately, President Obama's decision to not pursue the option of keeping American forces in Iraq past the December 31, 2011 date specified in the Status of Forces Agreement undid many of those gains. There was a provision in the SOFA as negotiated by the Bush Administration to allow for troops to remain based on the security situation. The realization that American forces would still be in Iraq past 2011 kept al-Qa'idah and the militias in check.

In my analysis, the security situation in late 2011 was perilous enough to warrant talking to the Iraqis about continued American support. Unfortunately, President Obama chose to withdraw all of the troops. While "ending the war in Iraq" might have made a great campaign talking point, it was inaccurate. The war in Iraq continues and the situation continues to worsen. Quitting a war neither ends it nor wins it.

In Afghanistan, the general again convinced the President, this time Barack Obama, to deploy additional combat forces to increase the tempo of the fighting. It succeeded, but only for a short while, for two reasons. The President did not authorize the number of troops General Petraeus thought was required for the mission, and once deployed, the President announced the timetable for the withdrawal not only of the surge forces, but all American forces.

Announcing an arbitrary withdrawal schedule merely telegraphs the date of victory to the insurgents. This is not, as promised, "ending the war responsibly." It is, in essence, quitting. Again, quitting a war neither ends it nor wins it.

CIA Director
General Petraeus is remarkable military officer, trained at West Point and educated at some of America's finest universities. He has distinguished himself in several military leadership roles. However, none of those qualify him to be the nation's top spymaster.

The Central Intelligence Agency has two main functions. First is the collection and production of intelligence to support national-level decision makers - we are mainly speaking about the President, Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense. Its second mission is the conduct of covert operations, those things that must be done in secret. That involves things like providing arms to insurgent groups - the Kurds, Libyans and hopefully the Syrians, come to mind. It also includes direct actions with Defense Department special operations forces, such as the killing of Usamah bin Ladin. CIA paramilitary officers also conduct drone strikes in Pakistan and Yemen.

Much of this work is distasteful and requires thinking outside the generally accepted military box. It requires a different skill set to manage people who are taught to lie, cheat and steal, albeit for their government. Directing the CIA requires a professional intelligence officer - either a case officer who recruits and runs spies, or a special activities officer who understands covert operations.

Sex and Benghazi
The most important point I tried to make Monday night was the need to get past the sex scandal and focus on what happened in Benghazi. This resignation gives us that opportunity. Petraeus is the "go to guy" for what happened out there. Virtually everything that transpired that night in Benghazi was either in the Director's purview, or he had access to the information. The CIA base in Benghazi was much more involved in what was happening in that part of Libya than the consulate.

General Petraeus would also have had access to the decision-making process that resulted in no military response. The CIA operations center would have been involved with this crisis from its start to its finish.

Also of interest is the timing of the general's resignation. If there were political considerations involved - and I don't know one way or the other - I do not believe it was tied to the election, but rather to the upcoming testimony before Congressional committees about what transpired in Benghazi. The important point here is, that the American people finally have an opportunity to get the real story, since next to no one places any credibility in the ever-changing Administration account.

General Petraeus is no longer an active-duty military officer, nor is he any longer the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency - thus no longer part of the Executive Branch, no longer a part of the government. He has no official standing to prevent him from detailing exactly what happened in Benghazi, and possibly more importantly, what was happening in Washington. He is the "go to guy" - he can tell us who knew what, when did they know it, and what did they do about it.

General Petraeus is not scheduled to appear before any of the Congressional oversight committees. Despite President Obama's spokesman's words, "The president is confident that Acting Director [Michael] Morrell is fully informed and capable of representing the CIA in a hearing about the incidents in Benghazi," I would rather hear it from someone no longer answerable to the President. That someone is David Petraeus.

Israel and Gaza - here we go again

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HAMAS fires rockets into Israel

Israel has few options in its dealings with HAMAS* and the Gaza Strip. The recent increase in violence has forced the Israelis to order air strikes against targets in the territory and prepare for a ground incursion reminiscent of the operation four years ago.

The number of rockets fired at Israel from the Gaza Strip is quite astounding. To recap, since the end of the fighting in January 2009, there have been more rockets fired each year than the previous year. In 2009, there were 300 fired, in 2010 there were 510 fired, in 2011 there were 615 fired, and thus far in 2012, there have been at least 900 fired. Over 400 of those 900 have been fired in the last week. Over 150 were fired on November 16 alone.

It's not just the quantity of rockets, it's the quality. In the fighting in late 2008 and early 2009, the only rockets in the HAMAS inventory were the home-made, not very effective Qassam rockets with range capabilities between three and 12 miles. The short range of the rockets placed the Israeli border cities in jeopardy, especially the city of Sderot. See my article written in January 2009 after I visited Sderot during the fighting, Sderot - Israel's "Rocket City".

Since 2009, HAMAS has significantly upgraded its rocket arsenal, acquiring longer range systems from Iran, smuggled in via the Sinai peninsula under the "watchful eyes" of our erstwhile allies, the Egyptians. This includes Iranian Fajr-5 rockets that were used by Hizballah against northern Israel in 2006. The Fajr-5 has a range of almost 45 miles, placing Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in range.

This week, HAMAS crossed an Israeli red line - it fired rockets at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Another attack killed three Israelis in the southern city of Qiryat Malachi. It was too much for the Israelis to absorb. It also reinforces the perception among Israelis who live in the southern part of the country that until the people in more upscale Tel Aviv or Jerusalem are threatened, the government ignores the plight of the average Israeli.

The Israelis began a series of air strikes in Gaza. The Israelis have been continuously collecting intelligence on the Gaza Strip - they have a huge catalog of targets to be struck. The initial targets, of course, are the longer range rocket systems, particularly the Fajr-5 launchers. HAMAS is a capable enemy - they are hiding the launchers in mosques, schools and other areas that the Israelis are reluctant to strike. World public opinion is never on the side of the Israelis, so they have to hold themselves to a much higher standard than the Palestinians.

Since many of the launchers may be in areas that cannot be attacked from the air without unacceptable civilian casualties, a ground incursion may be necessary. The Israeli cabinet authorized a call-up of up to 30,000 reservists. Of that, 16,000 have been mobilized. That will free up active duty units to move towards Gaza. The minister of defense is seeking authority to call up as many as 75,000 reservists.

The units that have deployed to the border are among the best in the IDF - the Givati Brigade, the Paratrooper Brigade, and the 401st Armored Brigade. The 401st is equipped with the latest Merkava-4 tank. The quality of troops moving towards Gaza and the reserve call-up indicate how serious Israel is taking the matter, and how likely it is that they will invade Gaza. Mobilizing reservists in a small country like Israel is expensive and disrupts virtually everything. These steps are not taken lightly.

Israel has rushed into service as many Iron Dome anti-missile batteries as it can. The system has been able to defeat dozens of inbound HAMAS rockets. The country is fast assuming a war posture. Likewise, in Gaza, residents are stocking up on food, fuel, water, etc., since they too know that an Israeli incursion is not only possible, but inevitable.

We seem to go through this drill every few years. The Israelis endure as many attacks as they are willing to tolerate, then conduct a punitive operation against Islamist elements in Gaza. Predictably, there will be a huge public outcry of the disproportionate nature of the response, the United Nations will call for a cessation of the violence (that's code for demanding Israel stop, but not so much the Palestinians), and Israel will stop short of destroying HAMAS's ability to fire more rockets.

Here we go again.

__________
* HAMAS, (حماس) Arabic for enthusiasm, is an acronym of the Arabic titleحركة المقاومة الاسلامية harakat al-muqawamat al-Islamiyah, the Islamic Resistance Movement.

Abby's Wish

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When times are great, friends are there to rejoice with you. When times are tough, friends are there to help you get through it. When you have great friends in your life, it makes hours, days, weeks, months and years become fulfilled with great memories.

I remember when Kayleigh came in to this world and all of you, friends, would rejoice in the miracle that Kayleigh survived what the doctors felt was impossible. I remember when Kayleigh was sick, friends put their hands together and prayed for another miracle. I remember when Kayleigh went to Heaven, friends reached their arms out for comfort. I also remember when friends helped lift a financial burden when this crazy world came crashing down on us.

One friend in particular who put his words on the line to help start a chain reaction to bring friends and family to send donations, is now in need of a financial assistance. However, Brent Riggs may have been the one to lend a helping hand to me as a friend, but it is Abby who is requesting this financial wish.

I have come to know the Riggs family very well and they are the most amazing family I have ever met. It is a blessing what Brent does everyday to witness to the world and what he has done to be such a strong leader for his family of 7 while caring for his little girl who was stricken with cancer. It is Abby who wishes to gain this financial blessing as they are all raising money for another adopted brother or sister. After seeing how amazing this family has been to me, to others and to their children, they are so deserving of this blessing.

So, I am going to give what little I have in order to start the same chain reaction blessing that the Riggs Family has done for others.

Brent...here is a $100! May you be blessed with what you need to bring home another beautiful child who will be even more blessed to be called a "Riggs"

Everyone who wants to help donate, please click here: Abby's Wish

God Bless My Friend!!!

Adam

Kayleigh's Birthday

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I am so excited because next weekend, my Mom and Dad will be venturing out to Wilmington to spend the weekend with me and all my great friends. It will be their first time coming out here and we have some exciting events planned.
A good handful of us are all gonna go out to eat at a beautiful restaurant downtown on the waterway to enjoy the beautiful sunset and then dive in to a delicous "Healthy" home made cake made with love by my mom to celebrate Kayleigh's birthday. It is going to be wonderful and I am so looking forward to having my friends and family there with me.
Other events for the weekend are not yet set in stone, but here are some of the options we may be doing: Airlie Gardens, Battleship North Carolina, Fort Fisher Aquarium, Exercising at O2 Fitness, Walking the Loop and the beach in Wrightsville Beach, and other exciting times. We only have the weekend, so we will have to pick the best of the best this time around.
It will be a great weekend to celebrate Kayleigh's birthday with those who are close to my heart. I couldn't ask for better friends who have supported me through everything and are there on a daily basis to put a smile on my face and remind me how truly blessed I am. Kayleigh has touched so many hearts and is the reason for so many blessings in my life. If it weren't for Kayleigh and the awesome people she brought in to my life, I wouldn't be as incredibly happy where I am in my life. She is such an amazing girl who continues to do wonderful things for so many on a daily basis.
Thanks to all and God Bless!
Adam

Iraq sides with Iran against U.S. in release of Hizballah terrorist

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In an unfortunate move that was easily predictable, the Iraqi government released Hizballah fighter 'Ali Musa Daqduq. Daqduq immediately returned to the safety of Beirut where he is considered a hero by his Hizballah colleagues.

Daqduq was accused by American forces of organizing an attack in the Iraqi holy city of Karbala' in January 2007 - that attack resulted in the death of five U.S. Army soldiers. Daqduq was in Iraq at the behest of the Hizballah's primary sponsor, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Qods Force. Daqduq's mission was to train Iraqi Shi'a militias in Hizballah tactics. Many military analysts consider Hizballah to be among the most effective guerrilla forces in the world.

Daqduq was captured by British forces in the southern port city of al-Basrah a few months after the Karbala' attack, and turned over to U.S. forces. At this point, internal American politics came into play. The Obama Administration, in its misguided interpretation that terrorist or insurgent attacks are crimes, wanted to bring Daqduq to the United States for trial in a civilian court. Other officials wanted to transfer Daqduq to the detention facility at Guantanamo. I side with that latter group.

The Obama Administration refused the transfer to Guantanamo, citing its desire to close the facility. Thus, no action was taken for over four years. In its rush for the exits in December 2011, the Administration transferred Daqduq to Iraqi custody. Although Iraqi officials assured the U.S. they would prosecute Daqduq, I don't know of anyone who thought that would ever happen.

It didn't. In May 2012, an Iraqi court ruled that there was insufficient evidence against Daqduq and ordered that he be released. Although the Iraqis continued to detain him during a sham appeals process, they upheld the initial ruling, refused an American request for extradition, and set him free.

This is what happens when you quit a war and fail to maintain any position of influence. I lay this at the feet of the President. Had he taken advantage of the provisions in the 2008 Status of Forces Agreement, we could have maintained a presence that might have stopped this travesty from happening. Quitting a war never wins it, never ends it. All the President did was hand a victory to neighboring Iran.

That is the clear result. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had a choice. Listen to the United States (in the persons of the vice president and U.S. Ambassador) and engineer a way to hand Daqduq over to the Americans, or follow the counsel of the Iranians - his fellow Shi'a and political masters - and release a member of their primary proxy terrorist organization, Hizballah.

Given the fact that Daqduq is in Beirut, we see who wields influence in Iraq.

The timing of Iraq's release of this Hizballah terrorist is also telling. The Iraqis chose to delay the order of the Iraqi court until after the U.S. presidential election. They wanted to make sure it did not negatively impact the re-election chances of what both the Iraqis and Iranians perceive as a weak American president. Senior Iranian leaders stated earlier that an Obama re-election was in the interests of the Islamic Republic.

I guess we now know how much sway we have in Baghdad. Thank you, Mr. President.

Syria - After the U.S. election, an opportunity for action?

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US Army Patriot air defense missile battery

Now that the U.S. presidential election is over - الحمد لله - perhaps we can move to address the problems that had been allowed to fester as the Obama Administration focused on remaining in office. One of the most pressing issues - and there are others, to be sure - is Syria. Reliable figures of how many people have died in the civil war are hard to come by, but conservative estimates place the death toll at over 36,000.

Skeptics will shortsightedly argue that what happens in Syria is not a threat to the national interests of the United States. The "Syria issue" is just not about Syria. You cannot view this in isolation - events in Syria affect what happens in neighboring Lebanon, including the future of Hizballah, and impact on the west's dealings with Iran over the Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons program.

Let's start by looking at what can be done to stop to the killing in Syria. There are calls by many inside and outside Syria for a no-fly zone, citing as an example the no-fly zone imposed on Libya last year. Syria is not Libya - the country is much more populated, the population centers are much further from the coast, and the country is protected by state-of-the-art, very capable Russian air defense systems.

The Turks have proposed a safety zone inside Syria, protected by U.S. and NATO Patriot air defense missile batteries inside Turkey, deployed along the Syrian border. The Patriot system can reach out as far as 100 miles, placing aircraft flying over the entire governorates of Aleppo and Idlib in range. These two areas have seen some of the most brutal air attacks over the course of the civil war. Syrian jet fighters and attack helicopters are the most feared weapon that the Syrian regime possesses.

The Free Syrian Army, the rebels, have been able to down around 75 aircraft, about half of them helicopters. They have done this with captured air defense artillery systems and shoulder-fired missiles, but the Syrians have been quick to adapt their tactics to the threat. Over the last month, Syrian air force pilots fly their aircraft at high speed and high altitudes while dropping flares to decoy heat-seeking missiles.

Airpower is the regime's most potent weapon. Even the opposition fighters acknowledge that for the most part, they are defenseless. While they have downed over 70 regime fighters and helicopters, that is a small percentage of the number of sorties launched by the Syrian air force. Each aircraft carries multiple weapons - they range from the conventional high-explosive general purpose bombs, normally about 500 pounds, to cluster munitions with hundreds of smaller sub-munitions, each capable of destroying a 60-ton tank, or the fuel-air explosive weapons that have the concussive effects just short of nuclear weapons. Add the locally-developed "barrel bomb," a crude home-made canister filled with explosives and nails, ball bearings, etc. See my description of this weapon, The Syrian "barrel bomb" - a terror weapon.

About all the Free Syrian Army can do is harass the pilots into flying out of anti-aircraft artillery range and the relatively outdated SA-7 shoulder-fired heat-seeking missile, but the effect of the bombing is the same - utter devastation of Syria's cities, the division of the country into sectarian groups and animosities that will last for generations.

What can we do?

The proposed safe zone protected by Patriot missiles could be a start, but it will not be as effective as a no-fly zone patrolled by U.S. and NATO aircraft. To impose a true no-fly zone, the Syrian air defenses would have to be attacked. Syria's air defense system is much more advanced and robust than Libya, so it will take some time to neutralize the weapons systems, their radars and the command and control system.

We also need to engage the Syrian opposition, now united in a loose coalition, even to the point of affording the Syrian National Coalition for Opposition and Revolutionary Forces some level of diplomatic recognition. There are concerns over the number of Muslin Brotherhood and other Islamist groups members in the coalition, but ignoring the coalition will not solve the issue.

If the United States hopes to exercise any influence over the course of events in Syria, it must be in the game. When the Syrian regime falls, we need to be ready to assist the follow-on government to resist the establishment of an Islamic state - the goal of many in the opposition. We need to be in a position to convince a new government to break away from Iran and re-enter the Middle East peace process.

We cannot afford to "lead from behind" - we need be out in front of this one. It is past time to do something.